Monthly Archives: March 2012

  I would like to do a longer post on this at some point, but would like to make just a quick observation on how I have found it useful  to think about developments from 1929 onwards. America has been … Continue reading →

Was Dr Krugman ever a great economist in the sense that Hayek, Smith, or Pareto were great economists?  He received a Nobel prize for his work on technical advancements in trade theory, but I wonder whether that necessarily puts his … Continue reading →

  http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=13706&cpage=1#comment-145379 Without looking at credit markets (the real origin of the problem – equities were a canary in the coalmine), he somehow determines that the recession of 1931 caused the financial crisis, denying that there was a financial crisis … Continue reading →

Scott Sumner and David Beckworth welcome the recent rise in long-term yields.  Sumner recommends Beckworth’s post, in which he claims that “the recent rise in long-term yields can be interpreted as the bond market pricing in a rise in the … Continue reading →

(and Marshall got it, possibly indirectly, from Mills (1867)) Re-reading Loasby’s excellent The Mind and Method of the Economist, he says the following:- “Marshall’s explanation of trade depression in his Principles is very brief: it is loss of confidence by … Continue reading →

It is interesting to see some market commentators who are otherwise distinguished by the left hemisphere utilization bias of their preferred approach to orienting themselves towards the world of macro and finance (in other words who think in terms of … Continue reading →

Bearing in mind that almost nobody at the beginning of 1994 expected anything like what was to materialize, JPM in their weekly GDW are possibly over-optimistic about their ability to anticipate the factors that might lead to a repricing of … Continue reading →

Perhaps, once again, everyone is wrong. Core CPI 2.9% Cleveland Fed Median CPI 2.3% Ten year breakevens are 2.44%.  Perhaps a touch low, but not obviously out of line unless one expects an aggressive pickup in wage growth – something … Continue reading →

September 2011   March 2012

There are many problems with his post here.  The key thing is that the TIPS market is by no means as liquid as he presumes.  To him, the real yield is just a number on a screen.  He has never … Continue reading →