Category Archives: macro

Bet Against America Today? Surely Not!

I am working on a forthcoming longer piece, but I wanted to note now that it is my very strong belief that the US dollar is in the process of carving out a base against most developed and emerging market … Continue reading

Posted in contrarian, dollar, fx, macro, magazinecover, philosophical, sentiment | Leave a comment

What are my favourite trades?

Long USD/JPY Long Japanese equities – favour smallcaps, banks, exporters Long USD vs E Europe Short EDZ2 thru EDZ4 (Eurodollar futures) – outright and vs 10s Long natural gas Short short sterling Short gilts vs bunds Long SPY vs EEM … Continue reading

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Has the private sector left the Kondratiev Winter?

Real hourly wages in the US private sector peaked in 1978 – a date close to when Tony Boeckh (formerly of BCA) gives for the peak in the Kondratiev cycle in his recent book “The Great Reflation”. (For more on … Continue reading

Posted in contrarian, inflation, kondratiev, macro, rates, sentiment | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment