Author Archives: cantillonblog

Mr Papola, So this book sets forth in an articulate and fashionably empirical manner, the merits of a blythe and unconcerned stance towards the future. Is it not relevant to our assessment of the author and his thesis that he … Continue reading →

Crude has lately shown the weakness I expected back in March.  I believe this is the beginning of a new cyclical bear market that relates both to a change in the resource intensity of growth ahead (especially in China) as … Continue reading →

One especially interesting question today is how one should think about the credibility of institutions when it comes to understanding and prognosticating about the macro situation and outlook. Today’s world emphasizes very highly the perceived requirement to justify one’s judgement … Continue reading →

My friend and sparring partner, David Glasner, over at Uneasy Money is sounding the alarum regarding the recent correction in 1 year implied breakeven rates, which have recently turned negative.  He views this as reflecting what he sees as the … Continue reading →

  By OECD PPP BRL is 18% overvalued (it seems a lot more when you visit, so I hear) and MXN is 71% undervalued.  The latter for obvious reasons, but they probably won’t get worse and might get better. Amazing … Continue reading →

From a facebook discussion, in relation to the following:- http://cafehayek.com/2012/06/brittan-on-krugman-on-keynesianism.html http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text429_p.html Boudreaux’s letter seems very fair to me. “[Krugman's column] should be read on the basis of its evidence, not on its alleged ideological baggage. ” That’s the whole point … Continue reading →

  This is a vital but difficult topic that constitutes an essential part of the variant perspective on the economy and markets I have formed after observing and participating in them for a couple of decades.  This is my first … Continue reading →

An author known as an evangelist for trend-following posted the following:- Caught this ominous line: “Two-thirds of all U.S. houses have mortgages. Of those, an estimated 21 to 29 percent of the mortgages are underwater, or up to 16 million … Continue reading →

Our good friend over at Historinhas wrote a year ago expressing satisfaction at the presence of uber-doves on the Bank of England MPC.  Posen was quoted as saying the following:- “The Bank of England‘s leading dove has predicted that inflation … Continue reading →

  I would like to do a longer post on this at some point, but would like to make just a quick observation on how I have found it useful  to think about developments from 1929 onwards. America has been … Continue reading →